🎯 Decision Analysis Tool - Smart Consequences Evaluation

1

Define Decision & Goal

State the exact choice and what "good" looks like (1–2 measurable outcomes)

What specific decision are you making?

What does success look like? (Be specific and measurable)

2

List Real Options

3–5 mutually exclusive actions (including "do nothing" for contrast)

Option A:

Option B:

Option C:

Option D:

3

Map First-Order Effects

Immediate, direct results for each option (money, time, energy, reputation, legal, emotion)

4

Map Second/Third-Order Effects

Follow-ons and feedback loops (how others react, new constraints opened/closed, habits it creates)

5

Set Time Horizons

Now (0–3 mo), Mid (3–24 mo), Long (2+ yrs). Judge consequences on each horizon

Now (0-3 months)

Mid (3-24 months)

Long (2+ years)

6

Stakeholder Scan

Who's touched (you, family/team, customers, regulators, environment)? Note +/– for each

7

Base Rates & Constraints

What usually happens in comparable cases? Note hard limits (cash, skills, laws, capacity)

Base Rates (What typically happens in similar situations?)

Hard Constraints (Limits you cannot change)

8

Likelihood × Impact

For each consequence, estimate Probability (L/M/H) and Impact (L/M/H). EV = Prob × Impact

Expected Value Calculator

L=1, M=2, H=3 → EV = Probability × Impact

9

Asymmetry & Reversibility

Is downside capped and upside open? Reversible (move fast) vs Irreversible (slow down, test first)

Asymmetry Analysis

Reversibility Assessment

Reversible Decision

Can be undone or changed easily. Move fast.

Irreversible Decision

Hard to undo. Slow down, test first.

10

Risk Controls & Options

Add guardrails: pilots, staged spend, exit clauses, insurance, diversification, buffers

Risk Mitigation Strategies

11

Premortem

"It's a year later and this failed—why?" List top 5 causes; pre-solve or add kill-switches

Top 5 Failure Scenarios & Solutions:

Failure Cause 1: Prevention/Kill-switch:

Failure Cause 2: Prevention/Kill-switch:

Failure Cause 3: Prevention/Kill-switch:

Failure Cause 4: Prevention/Kill-switch:

Failure Cause 5: Prevention/Kill-switch:

12

Choose & Commit

Pick the option with the best EV you can live with under worst-case. Write your top 3 assumptions

Your Final Decision:

Why this choice? (Expected Value reasoning)

Top 3 Key Assumptions:

13

Tripwires & Indicators

Define leading signals, review dates, and thresholds that trigger course-correction

Warning Signals & Thresholds:

Scheduled Review Dates:

14

Postmortem Setup

After outcomes, capture what you misjudged (probabilities? impacts? hidden stakeholders?)

Postmortem Learning Plan:

Postmortem Date: